Will the All Blacks regain their magic this autumn?

All Blacks team action
The All Blacks have secured victory in seventy-one percent of their fixtures during the 2020s

Pursuing what would be just a fifth northern hemisphere clean sweep in their legendary past, the All Blacks have headed north at an pivotal moment.

Fixtures against the Irish team, Scotland, the English squad and the Welsh team await the All Blacks across the coming month but, quite aside from the opportunity to equal the sides of previous successful tours in the record books, the fixtures will be used as a yardstick to evaluate the development of the side under a leader now 24 months into from taking up the reins.

Team Issues

Questions over a absence of an clear playing identity, continuing controversies over team picks and departures from the backroom staff have all added to the perception that the most famous squad in the rugby is currently one in a state of flux.

Most importantly, it is the dip in results from a historic high watermark set between the global tournaments of 2011 and 2019 that has prompted some to suggest that we have evolved beyond of the age of All Black exceptionalism.

Recent History

Before their travel for the fall series, it was confirmed that during the following season, in the non-existence of the southern hemisphere competition, New Zealand will play South Africa in a warm-weather tour dubbed 'a unique competition'.

Historically the game's two strongest sides, there is little doubt over who has currently outperformed of what promoters have described 'The Premier Rivalry'.

In recent seasons, the South African team have secured a couple of World Cups, three southern hemisphere titles and a tour against the home nations team to be regarded as the team of their era.

New Zealand have continued to defeat Ireland when it counts most, defeating this weekend's rivals in the tournament knockout stages of 2019 and '23. They have, at the same time, been defeated in just a couple of the past 21 meetings with the English team, have overcome Wales in all matches since 1963 and have never suffered defeat by the Scottish team.

Shifting Balance

But the diminishment of their standing as the game's gold standard will persist as an irritation.

Whereas the New Zealand team reigned supreme through the last ten years - securing 87% of their international games, as well as claiming the World Cup on several instances - the global tournament of the previous competition can now be regarded as when the balance of power changed in the world sport.

New Zealand defeated the Springboks in their opening match of the competition in Japan, but it was the South Africans who were eventually successful in the final.

From that point, the All Blacks' success rate has declined to seventy-one percent. South Africa themselves were defeated in 10 of their next 26 Test matches but, from the beginning of 2023, have achieved victory at a frequency (83%) to compete with even the last great New Zealand team.

Future All Blacks fixtures
The New Zealand team will play multiple matches against South Africa in future seasons

Head-to-Head

Throughout the same period, the Springboks have secured victory in the majority of the past fixtures between the teams, featuring triumph in the latest global tournament decider.

In claiming their latest regional title, South Africa inflicted a significant beating on the New Zealand team courtesy of overwhelming display in the capital, a outcome which has sparked another series of discussion about the development of the squad under Robertson.

Possibly most troubling for supporters of the All Blacks will be that, allied to their usual power, South Africa's success has come with an offensive flair more typically linked with their own side.

Team Identity

At the time that the All Blacks were at the height of their powers in previous eras, they were a ruthless counter-attacking unit capable of dismantling competitors from every section of the playing surface and at any moment of the game.

Currently, their offensive approach is unclear as the coach, who has awarded multiple new players during his two years in charge, tries to primarily create the fundamental core elements of a competitive squad.

It has previously announced that the supporting manager responsible for attack, the current coach, will leave his role after the fall series, becoming the second member of the coaching staff to depart after Leon MacDonald left last year after just a handful of games.

Team Development

It was not merely his winning record, but his methodology, that was expected to carry over from previous club when he took over after the global competition but, so far, the two aspects are still a work in progress.

Ardie Savea in action
Ardie Savea was awarded international star in 2023

Organizational Strategy

Following private equity firm Silver Lake invested capital in All Blacks in recent years, the ensuing statement discussed the "search of worldwide growth" for the brand.

That objective has possibly been more challenging by the absence of a international celebrity. The current captain and the group of family members are still recognizable personalities in the game, but the concentration of key individuals has expanded significantly. Their leader is the single New Zealand player to earn World Player of the Year in the current era, in opposition to ten awards in over a decade between the mid-2000s.

Global Expansion

Rather, efforts have been undertaken to transplant the New Zealand team into emerging regions.

The initial stage of this European campaign brings the All Blacks not to Dublin but the American city, a revisit to the Soldier Field venue where the Irish team obtained a landmark success in the fixture nine years ago.

Since the reduction of pandemic limitations, the All Blacks have furthermore

Robert Cox
Robert Cox

A former casino manager turned gaming analyst, specializing in slot machine mechanics and responsible gambling practices.

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