Daily Murders in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The average count of everyday murders per month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent government statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have warned that homicide data may not point to better national security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the leadership in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded in these past months is very significant,” the President remarked, adding that last month the least amount of murders were recorded for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Violent cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's highly militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, we have tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main pillars of the President's security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security researchers urged caution that using homicide data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was similarly an issue because it could hide periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean makes spikes of violence less visible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors killed in the past 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to show their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to create a story of safety. Politically it’s very effective, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.